Market Decode™: Is Fall the bargain season for stocks?

With September historically the weakest month for stocks, what drives the pattern, and what could come next for investors?

September 23, 2026

Insights by Marci McGregor, head of Portfolio Strategy, Chief Investment Office

SEPTEMBER HAS EARNED A TOUGH REPUTATION on Wall Street. Since 1928, it has been the weakest month of the year for the S&P 500, with an average return of negative 1.1%1. But the calendar alone doesn’t determine what comes next. Economic conditions, Federal Reserve policy, corporate activity and investor positioning can all shape the market’s direction. History has also shown that the three months after September have, on average,  delivered positive returns for the index2.

What’s behind bumpy Septembers?

  • A heightened focus on economic data and the Fed
  • Pre-earnings corporate blackout period suppresses trading
  • Post-summer investor rebalancing

In the video above, Marci McGregor, head of Portfolio Strategy in the Chief Investment Office for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, runs through some of the reasons behind September’s volatility. She also looks at the pattern in midterm election years, and a key lesson that could be learned from the Fall months.  “Consider potential periods of market weakness in the Fall as entry points for equity investors,” says McGregor.

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1Source: Bloomberg, as of September 16, 2026.

2Average S&P 500 Returns Post-September Since 1928 : October (+3.0%), November (+2.7%), and December (+0.8%). Source: Bloomberg data through 2022. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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