How geopolitics could reshape your portfolio

From U.S.-China competition and rare earth minerals to AI and emerging markets, an exploration of potential opportunities and risks globally.

July 6, 2026

Insights by Joe Quinlan, Head of Market Strategy for the Chief Investment Office for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, and Larry Di Rita, Head of Public Policy for Bank of America

THE RACE FOR DOMINANCE between the U.S. and China is shaping the outlook for trade, artificial intelligence (AI), critical minerals and global supply chains. At the same time, the conflict in Iran, the ongoing war in Ukraine and questions around Taiwan continue to affect market sentiment. For investors, these forces can create volatility, but they may also reveal potential opportunities in technology, life sciences, defense, energy security and select emerging markets.

“Both sides are looking to de-risk their economies from each other, knowing that both economies are highly linked,” says Larry Di Rita, Head of Public Policy for Bank of America.

In the video above, Joe Quinlan, Head of Market Strategy for the Chief Investment Office for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, and Di Rita discuss ways that investors can think about geopolitics at the midyear point, from the U.S.-China relationship and shifting relationships in the Middle East to the evolving role of artificial intelligence and how to view emerging markets.

What you’ll learn in the video:

  • Why U.S.-China tensions remain manageable but unresolved.
  • How “de-risking,” not full decoupling, is shaping supply chains.
  • Why AI, chips, quantum computing and cloud services are central to the U.S.-China race.
  • How rare earth minerals and processing capacity may create opportunities beyond the U.S. and China.
  • Why Taiwan, South Korea and China are central to the emerging markets discussion.

Watch the conversation — part of the Chief Investment Office’s series of 2026 Midyear Outlook insights — to hear how Quinlan and Di Rita frame the risks and potential opportunities investors may want to monitor as U.S.-China competition intensifies.

Go deeper with the article, “Midyear 2026: The pace of change accelerates.” And for more timely market insights from the CIO, tune in regularly to the Market Update audiocast series.

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The opinions expressed are as of 5/28/2026 and are subject to change.

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