Capital Market Outlook
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Can the Equity Bull Continue To Run?
Real long-term interest rates have risen amid concerns about the sustainability of U.S. deficit spending. Plus dividend stocks have faced stronger competition from the bond market, and we believe the equity bull run will continue as fundamentals have held up and market leadership shows signs of broadening.
March 11, 2023
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Taking Stock of U.S. Banks
We see potential value in the larger, diversified U.S. banks despite the possibility of added volatility as the Financial sector works through the transitioning of credit, economic and policy cycles. Plus in our view, the current earnings season in Europe has been underwhelming while demand from China remains a challenge.
March 4, 2023
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That Y2K Feeling is Back
In anticipation of the November vote, we see a world boosting defense spending and hear businesses recasting global supply chains. Plus the growing probability that the economy has begun to reaccelerate is making monetary easing less certain, and the liquidity pivot.
February 26, 2024
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Renewable Energy Boom and Bust
We view the global transition toward a clean energy future as still very much in progress. Plus yield curve inversions now and then, and the U.S.-China “de-risking" debate will remain front and center as the election approaches.
February 20, 2024
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Commercial Real Estate's Slow Burn
Investing at all-time highs doesn't mean avoiding the market altogether and potentially missing opportunities for returns. Plus in our view investors should ignore hype and stay focused and disciplined when constructing and balancing portfolios, and commercial real estate's slow burn.
February 12, 2024
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Global Economy Landing Softly
There is raised confidence in a soft landing at the global level, with more-resilient-than expected emerging market economies and government efforts to boost the flailing Chinese economy. Plus if a soft landing is achieved, that may be positive for risk assets while Small-caps may continue to gain momentum.
February 5, 2024
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Why Semiconductors Should Matter
Why semiconductors should matter so much for investors. Plus constructing portfolios in a bull market of negativity and election uncertainty, and we ask whether international equity markets might outperform in 2024.
January 29, 2023
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What’s Needed to Love This Market?
It may take a combination of conditions falling into place for stocks to build out a more sustainable move up. Plus unprecedented pandemic liquidity is still suppressing credit spreads, and the emergence of the U.S. as an energy superpower.
January 22, 2024
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Recalibrating Our Themes for 2024
A handful of long-term secular trends and themes is unfolding and for that reason we’ve recalibrated our 2024 themes to be reflective of these powerful structural forces. Plus the case for interest rate cuts in 2024, and as goes January, so goes the year?
January 16, 2023
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Clean Energy Needs Hard Hats
Investors shouldn't think major geopolitical events are inconsequential for market returns. Plus faster trend nominal growth implies a higher interest-rate environment than that of the pre-pandemic era, and the key—or foil—to the green transition will likely be workers.
January 8, 2024
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Momentum into 2024
We discuss what we believe is significant momentum carrying into the New Year as the S&P 500 bumps up against its all-time high. Plus easier monetary policy should drive an ongoing shift to the beneficiaries of lower interest rates that suffered through most of 2023 when rates were rising.
January 2, 2024