Capital Market Outlook

Taking stock of the global supply chain for electric vehicle batteries, we find there may be more hard-asset investment opportunities for investors. Plus signals at bear market bottoms, and inflation moderation may be rough for markets to stomach.

September 19, 2022

The Federal Reserve’s recent forecast errors and policy mistakes are sources of heightened economic uncertainty and financial-market volatility. Plus how Europe’s recession will be transmitted to the U.S., and King Dollar is going from strength to strength.

September 12, 2022

Many have declared the bear market over while others expect new lows. Plus, the outlook for Equities over the next several years could improve, and rarely have the Big Three—the U.S., Europe and China—struggled in tandem as they are today.

September 6, 2022

Financial conditions are likely to remain under pressure as the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening program kicks into a higher gear. Plus, the world's population is expanding at its slowest pace since 1950, and the investment case for gender equality.

August 29, 2022

China recently has been set back by a range of economic and policy challenges. Plus pressures to suppress global oil consumption are likely to remain strong given increasingly ambitious climate change policies, and debt-servicing costs are set to rise modestly over the near term.

August 22, 2022

The more overvalued the dollar becomes, the harsher the unwinding is likely to be. Plus we review factors currently favoring consumers and others that call for getting cautious, and anticipate a decline in earnings in 2023 on economic weakness and margin pressures.

August 15, 2022

The need to reverse growing pressure on U.S. corporate profit margins may suggest a reset in business hiring and investment that typically triggers recessions. Plus recent legislation attempts to jumpstart a manufacturing comeback, and investor sentiment remains in a bearish zone.

August 8, 2022

The economy is expected to lose steam until the Federal Reserve stops its aggressive quantitative tightening. The U.S. chip industry requires funding in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Plus, diverging equity and bond volatility sends mixed signals.

August 1, 2022

Returns for European Equities have exhibited significant dispersion across countries this year. Plus we survey potential market catalysts for the back half of this year, and after 10 Years of Xi ask why Chinese Equity indexes have significantly underperformed global benchmarks.

July 25, 2022

Economic forecasters continue to mark down their growth estimates while raising the outlook for inflation. In addition, we consider a decay in wealth as a portent of weaker consumer spending, and 25% of the way through ask what lessons we've learned from the 2020s.

July 18, 2022

We highlight a few possible scenarios that markets may not be fully factoring into prices. Plus underwhelming economic data have continued to sap confidence in the longevity of the expansion, and we consider what shape the recovery for global consumer confidence will take.

July 11, 2022

Untethered money supply fluctuations have created a new, more volatile environment for asset allocation. Plus we believe U.S. Equities should be at the forefront (and at the core) of portfolios, and we take a midyear look at how performance has varied across asset classes.

July 5, 2022

The same rules that apply to bear sightings may also apply to recessions: Don't run, don't panic, and stand your ground. Plus investor attention is now turning to earnings as the third leg of the fundamental stool for Equities, and bear market history as a guide.

June 27, 2022

Production, international trade, corporate earnings and sentiment are likely to remain headed in the wrong direction. Plus muni valuations, once cheap, have since richened, and we present a scorecard framework for Emerging Markets.

June 21, 2022

We go back to the past, in particular to the 1970s, in search of potential clues about the future for portfolio management strategies. Plus firms are pressed to boost productivity and strengthen supply chains through localization and/or diversification, and the technology sector turmoil.

June 13, 2022

Inflation is dimming the economic outlook. In the U.S. it needs to peak, China needs to aggressively reflate, and Europe needs to counterbalance the growth shock from soaring energy costs. However, we believe there are some bright spots in these markets for long-term investors.

June 6, 2022

Surging inflation and interest rates with deteriorating global growth prospects have diminished the outlook for U.S. growth and profits. Plus a rethink on traditional portfolio construction and positioning may be in order, and consumer spending in China should gather momentum.

May 31, 2022

We believe we are “starting our initial descent" toward a landing for the labor market and the overall business cycle. Plus the U.S. has been the target zone for inflows measured by foreigner flows into U.S. securities and foreign direct investment, and the secular bull case for commodities.

May 23, 2022

Much of the adjustment to limited energy supply will likely continue to take place on the demand side, creating headwinds to global economic growth. Plus the markets are captive to a toxic trifecta, and market weakness is common ahead of midterm elections and post-election rebounds.

May 16, 2022

Global growth is weakening fast, and the Fed is on track to make matters worse. Plus we outline a three-pronged approach to manage through volatility, and the decline in equity markets has shown that it's driven by a compression in valuation even as forward earnings are expected to grow.

May 9, 2022

The same rules that apply to bear sightings may also apply to recessions: Don't run, don't panic, and stand your ground. Plus investor attention is now turning to earnings as the third leg of the fundamental stool for Equities, and bear market history as a guide.

May 2, 2022

Stagflation ahead—the markets are revaluing across sectors and asset classes to better align with the structural shift. Plus: Remain vigilant, but it may be too early to become cautious, and the ability to reinvest cash flows at higher yields is a welcome outcome of a transparent Fed.

April 25, 2022

In our view, the possibility of aggressive quantitative tightening is now the biggest downside risk to the outlook. Plus globalization is under strain but will most likely bend not break, and the surge in coronavirus cases has added another headwind to China's growth outlook.

April 18, 2022

Shifting supply-side shocks are creating persistent inflation, we would broadly categorize macro financial conditions as “flashing yellow," and we believe the divergence of yield curves is simply a glaring sign of how far behind the curve the Federal Reserve is at the moment.

April 11, 2022

Which yield curve matters?—Investors are focusing on central banks' response and whether they will cause recessions. Plus inflation, coronavirus and energy (I.C.E.) are key challenges for the world's largest economies, and what went right in Q1.

April 4, 2022

Rising interest rates, geopolitically refueled energy and other commodity prices could mean even higher fencing will surround the housing sector. Plus, we expect China's primary challenge this year to come from domestic policy, and market returns one month into the Ukraine conflict.

March 28, 2022

Markets will remain choppy and volatile in the near term, with our portfolio tilt toward inflation and geopolitical hedges and opportunities. Plus, is the dollar's reserve currency status at risk, and for gold, how monetary authorities balance worries with economic growth concerns would be key.

March 21, 2022

The Ukraine/Russia conflict has the potential to sow the seeds of a global recession. Plus the changing forces driving asset allocation, and a combination of weak European growth and a stronger dollar versus the euro could trim U.S. earnings in the next few quarters.

March 14, 2022

We take stock of our key macro views and assess the effect of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and consider sign posts that speak to the current investment landscape and the implications for investors. Also, our version of FAANG 2.0 reflects a new world of geopolitical risks.

March 7, 2022