Capital Market Outlook

We assess implications of the latest moves to maintain funding for the federal government. Plus the bite of higher interest rates is just beginning to be felt across private and public debt, and elevated inflation uncertainty is a persistent headwind to economic growth.

October 2, 2023

The historical link between an inverted yield curve and recessions has been called into question. Plus we present a more nuanced view of the U.S.-Sino decoupling thesis, and consider whether investors should avoid overweighting cash despite higher short-term yields.

September 25, 2023

Africa could emerge as a key source of the minerals needed to propel the global green transition. Plus China's auto sector continues to roar ahead, and as efforts to tackle some of the world's largest problems grow, so do potential investment opportunities in themes related to our planet.

September 18, 2023

We see a number of scenarios that could develop that may alter how economic data is interpreted, including a review of tailwinds, headwinds and risks facing the investment outlook. Plus, in our view, several factors suggest that vigilance over the sustainability of the consumer spending rebound may be warranted.

September 11, 2023

Before investors consider overseas investing, they should contemplate that of the major global indexes, the S&P 500 is among the least in equity concentration while also the most diversified in the world. A new world order may be likely with new alliances and potential to strengthen the bloc, but in our view, skepticism remains.

September 5, 2023

Before investors declare an inflection point in markets, there may be some important nuances to the latest moves to consider. Plus thoughts on a 5% world, and the bull market in global subsidies deserves special attention.

August 28, 2023

The recent big fiscal boost is at odds with monetary policy trying to cool an overheated labor market. Plus many are becoming more comfortable with a potential soft landing in 2024, and there's a bear market in new neighbors.

August 21, 2023

We offer six market and macro themes to consider. Plus alchemists (policy makers) need to concoct the right mix of pro-growth policies, and the market's crosscurrents are likely to produce conflicting signals for investors.

August 14, 2023

Some inconvenient truths and unintended consequences about reshoring. Plus the El Nino phenomenon could exacerbate higher global temperature increases, and investors should continue to monitor possible headwinds that could leave the market vulnerable.

August 7, 2023

In our view, investors should be on the lookout for a handful of signals that could indicate the newly established bull market has room to run. Plus we still believe certain mega-forces can dominate the cyclical macro backdrop, and the entrepreneurial spirit of the U.S. remains vibrant.

July 31, 2023

Small-caps are showing relative strength versus Large-caps; is it time to upgrade? Plus China's recently announced export restrictions could spark a global scramble for critical metals and minerals, and the level of bank reserves can affect risk market sentiment.

July 24, 2023

We ask whether all the cyclical red flags may prove wrong about a coming recession. Plus: Uncovering developing trends may help in monitoring the next stage of the market cycle, and we see several factors that could make student loan repayments less of a headwind than many expect.

July 17, 2023