Capital Market Outlook

With earnings season approaching, a focus on five key variables can give investors a fuller picture of a company's health. For a broader market perspective, investors should consider the U.S. economy's dominance and the role of foreign investment.

June 30 2025

The U.S. economy appears to be in a mid-cycle “soft patch," but a resilient labor market has eased slowdown concerns. As rising geopolitical turmoil and protectionism dominate global headlines, gold and other commodities stand to benefit.

June 23, 2025

Depreciation in the U.S. dollar could drive significant earnings growth for U.S. multinationals across sectors, particularly in a newly resurgent European Union. And as everyday technology becomes more reliant on Artificial Intelligence, access to water will be key.

June 16, 2025

While strong underlying fundamentals suggest the market expansion is likely to continue, tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on technology stocks. In the U.S. Treasury market, a potential buyers' strike merits close watching.

June 9, 2025

Amid a flood of daily data, we encourage investors to look deeper for what matters. Easing policy uncertainty could benefit stocks, but we're watching how the trade wars could impact US data.

June 2, 2025

Beyond the daily noise, we still see sturdy fundamentals that support market growth and potential outperformance among risk assets. Interest rates, tariff-related pressures and the infrastructure implications of manufacturing remain concerns, however.

May 27, 2025

Trade developments have reduced the odds of a recession. As economists scramble to revise their forecasts, we're keeping an eye on brand nationalism and the evolving outlook for small businesses.

May 19, 2025

We believe the adjustment to the new trade framework argues for portfolio diversification and a focus on quality assets. Meanwhile, performance in Asian markets depends on a range of factors and the U.S. tourist industry sees signs of a coming slowdown.

May 12, 2025

Change is constant. Companies and investors that can adapt to it should thrive as the reordering of global trade changes growth prospects in the U.S. and abroad.

May 5, 2025

While successful trade negotiations may offer a respite from a long stretch of bearish sentiment, we believe an extended deterioration in bilateral relations between the U.S. and China poses a longer-term headwind for U.S. businesses and consumers.

April 28, 2025

Despite tariff-related uncertainty, upward pressure on trade and fiscal U.S. deficits is expected to dissipate, while the health of the U.S. consumer and U.S. dollar remain steady. Tariffs are making it difficult for small businesses to plan, however.

April 21, 2025

Tariff policy has injected downside risks into what was shaping up to be continued favorable growth momentum. While future trade policy changes bear watching, areas of fundamental-driven opportunity may still exist.

April 14, 2025