Capital Market Outlook

A robust economy, dominant dollar and reflationary fiscal policy reinforce our preference for U.S. assets over international choices as geopolitical conflicts and supply chain pressures grow. Also, what Fed policy could mean for small-caps.

October 7, 2024

This week we explain why investors need a more nuanced view of the U.S. Consumer given they are the pulse of the U.S. economy – and in our view, remains solid. We also review Emerging Markets and Europe amid the new fed easing cycle.

September 30, 2024

We believe the economy and markets give little support for the Fed's belief that policy is restrictive. While investors continue to think twice when it comes to China, foreign investors have shown a remarkable penchant to “Buy America" over this century.

September 23, 2024

The election will have implications for fixed income markets, but we believe it would take much weaker economic growth to spur a recession. This plus the latest on the possible government shut down.

September 16, 2024

August taught us, market turbulence will likely come up against tailwinds, but what investors still don't get about the U.S. Economy is that as markets chop and churn through volatility our economy remains dynamic and diverse. Mixed economic data reflect the transition to the new economy with stronger than expected consumer spending, and other positive trends.

September 9, 2024

This week we explore how rate cut expectations are broadening the equity market rally. We also discuss our view of conditions as a “buffalo market" and send a reminder “don't overlook earnings", since a strong earnings backdrop helps to reinforce our equity overweight.

September 3, 2024

Whether the economy enters a recession has often been the main determinant of whether a period of market weakness becomes deeper and more extended. Plus we foresee deficits remaining large and debt levels concerning, but also believe federal stimulus will be a tailwind for corporate earnings.

August 26, 2024

Bigger deficits mean a higher neutral rate, which helps explain why risk assets have been rising instead of falling as they normally do when monetary policy is restrictive. Plus the August market meltdown in perspective, and are there early signs of a thawing housing market?

August 19, 2024

We discuss some potential drivers of defense stocks, including geopolitical risks, the evolving nature of war and the role of private and smaller companies. Plus reports of the death of the 60/40 portfolio are greatly exaggerated, and implications for investors of falling global fertility rates.

August 12, 2024

A number of variables have converged to spook the markets in August, including concerns with the Federal Reserve being behind the curve in cutting rates. Plus we highlight three takeaways from the market’s shake-up in July, and ask whether the muni tax exemption is in jeopardy.

August 5, 2024

We've begun to see a gradual broadening out amongst sectors and different indexes, leaving room for new investor opportunities, and July's forecast shows market action supporting a well-diversified portfolio. Meanwhile, in second half of the decade, we focus on five mega forces that may shape market returns.

July 29, 2024

A significant global shortfall in available freshwater is projected over the coming years as demand increases. Plus the good news amid the bad news about America's declining fertility rate and why it matters, and the world can't go green without Asia.

July 22, 2024