Capital Market Outlook

Taking the Long View

The tariff turmoil of a year ago gave way to a swift market recovery rather than lasting damage. With war-driven volatility in the headlines, we still think history favors a long-term recovery-focused view.

 

March 30, 2026

Finding Opportunities amid Uncertainty

Geopolitical uncertainty and artificial intelligence disruption underscore the value of diversification. Meanwhile, China's equity market remains a haven of relative stability.

 

March 23, 2026

Monitoring Uncertainty

A prolonged geopolitical conflict could come with downside risks to global growth and earnings, though we continue to believe economic resilience and diversification should help investors navigate near-term uncertainty.

 

March 16, 2025

Taking Stock of the Headlines and the Fundamentals

Despite ongoing policy and geopolitical headwinds, we continue to see a U.S. economy supported by broader policy and economic trends, as well as a potential manufacturing upcycle.

 

March 9, 2026

Underlying Growth and Dynamic Labor Productivity

We see strong fundamentals and long-term trends, even amid uncertainty and wavering consumer sentiment — in particular, our outlook for U.S. consumer spending and China's leading tech firms remains constructive.

 

March 2, 2026

The Importance of Diversification

Volatility in early 2026 has favored non-U.S. markets, but resilient market breadth, sector rotation and Artificial Intelligence are supporting a broader uptrend — and underscoring the importance of diversification.

 

February 23, 2026

Manufacturing and the U.S. Consumer Drive Growth

Improving manufacturing trends could help broaden earnings growth as the U.S. consumer remains a dominant driver of the global economy. Meanwhile, interest costs, tax cuts and pre-election spending pressures could lead to a sizable U.S. deficit.

 

February 17, 2026

More Rotation than Retreat

Headline indexes are moving, but we believe it's important to track what's going on beneath the surface: The U.S. appears poised for a major foreign-investment-driven industrial renaissance and a sector rotation appears to be maintaining the uptrend.

 

February 9, 2026

Strong Fundamentals Despite January Jitters

After some January Jitters, we believe policy shifts reshaping global market leadership are helping to boost performance alongside stronger growth, improved fundamentals, progress on reducing U.S. deficits and a powerful pro-cyclical rotation.

 

February 2, 2026

Consider Volatility the Cost of Admission

Changes to the long-standing, rules-based geopolitical order mean volatility could be inevitable. Underlying drivers of the bull market remain intact, though — and could continue to offer support, even in potentially unexpected sectors like clean energy.

 

January 26, 2026

The Bull Has Room to Run

With productivity, growth and earnings remaining strong, we expect continued momentum in U.S. markets — despite ongoing policy uncertainty and elevated valuations.

 

January 20, 2026

All Systems Go

Strong global economic growth signals are driving equity markets to new highs to start the year, but we believe long-term investors should continue to focus on fundamentals. Plus, a look at China's 25-year transformation of world trade.

 

January 12, 2026

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